Calibration
How often what was called likely actually happened. A range is calibrated when outcomes land inside it about as often as it claimed, which is the one test a forecast can pass.
L2Level 2 of 3 · no narrower concepts
What it rests on, and what rests on it
It rests on
Rests on it
Where it is used
No article names it yet.
In the model
- The model's principle “Validation is an institution, not a phase”
Sources
- Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner, Superforecasting, ch. 3, Keeping Score, 2015.